More on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa...

Concern continues to rise regarding the ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Two new papers are out that use publicly available data from the region to estimate the early epidemic dynamics (Fisman et al. 2014 and Nishiura and Chowell, 2014). The interesting thing about these two papers is that they use different methodologies but both give essentially the same result. An analysis of the WHO data clearly demonstrates that the outbreaks are steadily growing (the estimates for the effective reproductive number are consistently above 1.0 ). This means that "control" is still a long way off. Several weeks ago the WHO announced that we could see 20,000 people infected which seemed incredibly high. With the results of these two new papers, I think that we can expect that we will easily reach 20,000. 

Fisman, Khoo, and Tuite, 2014.

Nishiura and Chowell, 2014

Analyzing the dynamics of the Ebola outbreak...using the IDEA model

In 2013, we (David Fisman, Tanya Hauck, Ashleigh Tuite and myself) published a paper called an IDEA for short term outbreak projection. The IDEA (incidence decay and exponential adjustment) model was based on the idea that we could use simple types of public health surveillance data and turn that information into reliably accurate projections of what might happen in the outbreak in the short-term. In that paper, we suggested that although we had tested the model using a few case studies, further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks would establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. Well look no further...the IDEA model is being tested to see how it performs using data from the ongoing Ebola outbreak. You can check out how the model is performing at the following link. You can also read more about the role that mathematical epidemiology is playing in the Ebola outbreak in this article published in Science magazine. 

Join the new Community of Interest (CoI) in Disease Modeling @ OVC

My research group is facilitating a new Community of Interest (CoI) in Disease Modeling at the University of Guelph. This is an interdisciplinary group that will meet once per week to discuss recently published papers, work in progress by group members as well as a variety of other topics of interest to the disease modeling community. We are hoping to have participants from across the University as well as local, provincial and federal government scientists who are actively working in this area to join us for discussion. We are not focused on any one specific methodology or application but rather on building a collaborative group to support learning and research within the broad area of disease modeling. Further details regarding the day and time of group meetings as well as resources for the meetings will be distributed shortly. If you are interested in joining the group please contact me by email and I can add you to the distribution list. 

Ecological Society of America (ESA) 2014

It has been 8 years since I last attended the Ecological Society of America annual meeting. Now that I have joined the University of Guelph and am starting to move some of my research efforts back towards disease ecology, I thought that it was a great time to attend the meeting to see what I have been missing. The short answer is that I have been missing ALOT!

Back in 2006 (the last year that I attended), there were 2 sessions on disease and epidemiology during the week long meeting. This probably amounted to about 16-18 oral presentations within this area of research. I was really thrilled to find that disease ecology within the society has exploded . There were disease ecology talks throughout the week long meeting including 6 sessions specifically dedicated to disease and epidemiology. The disease ecologists in the society are now so plentiful that they have their own section to join. Even more exciting was that the society awarded the Robert T. MacArthur Award for outstanding contributions to  Dr. Mercedes Pascual from the University of Michigan. Dr. Pascual is a theoretical ecologist who works on infectious disease dynamics. 

I am looking forward to attending the meeting next year in Baltimore and bringing some of my students with me to present their work. 

Are you in the final stages of completing your doctoral program?

Are you a newly minted PhD (or soon to be) looking for an interesting and dynamic postdoctoral experience for 2015? The Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship program provides funding ($70,000 year for 2 years) to the very best postdoctoral applicants, both nationally and internationally, who will positively contribute to the country's economic, social and research‑based growth.  Canadian citizens, permanent residents of Canada and foreign citizens are eligible to apply.

The objective of the Banting Postdoctoral Fellowships program is to:

• attract and retain top-tier postdoctoral talent, both nationally and internationally

• develop their leadership potential

• position them for success as research leaders of tomorrow

If you are interested in applying for a Banting award please review the application materials (especially the eligibility requirements) and then contact Dr. Greer as soon as possible. The deadline for University of Guelph applications is August 20th, 2014. 

In the news!

You can read a bit about the my research program in this new article published on the University of Guelph Website. In other news, the Math.Epi.Lab has received Discovery Grant Funding from NSERC to study the implications of network structure for disease transmission dynamics in agricultural animals. 

The Math.Epi.Lab will be in the field this weekend!

We are busy preparing to attend the Caledon Dressage Silver show at the Orangeville Fairgrounds this weekend.  Kelsey, Beverly, Dr. Terri O'Sullivan and I will be in attendance conducting a pilot study over the course of the weekend. 

Horses are a highly mobile population. Many horses move frequently to participate in equestrian shows and events, and movement patterns are highly variable. The movement of horses is one of the most important factors determining the risk of the potential introduction and spread of an infectious disease within this population.

This pilot study will provide us with a snapshot of the nature and extent of horse movements and the network of potential contacts associated with a single equestrian show in southern Ontario. Our results will help us to further refine and develop our survey in order to initiate a larger version of this project in 2015.

Research results will help us to:

1.     Design and target risk-based surveillance programs and control measures to prevent the spread of equine diseases among horses in Ontario.

2.     Improve our ability to quickly detect and control potential outbreaks of equine disease in Ontario.

3.     Minimize the economic and emotional impact that equine disease can have on the equine industry, and Ontario farm families.

. Improve the health and welfare of Ontario horses.

Extreme weather events projected to be on the rise?

Many infectious diseases have complex relationships with weather and climate related variables such as humidity, UV, and rainfall. This is especially true of pathogens that have an environmental reservoir. Today an article in Slate magazine has suggested that 2014-2015 might be a significant El Nino year, making extreme weather events more common. The math.epi.lab is investigating the role of climate and environment on the occurrence of food and water-borne pathogens. The prediction that we might expect a significant El Nino year could have important implications for the risk of infectious diseases in North America. Stay tuned for updates from the math.epi.lab. For an overview of projected climate change impacts on infectious disease risk check out our 2008 article in the Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ). 

Greer et al. 2008.